How Kennedy's Situation Affects the Senate

I'm sure most of you have heard by the time that you're reading this that Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) has been diagnosed with a malignant glioma (brain tumor) in his left parietal lobe. The prognosis for the condition that he has is anywhere from less than 1 year to live to five years to live (under the best circumstances). For a man of Kennedy's age, such a diagnosis seems to be fatal at some point.

Red & Blue's prayers go out to Sen. Kennedy and his family. Ted's oldest brother Joe died during World War II, and his two other brothers, John and Robert, were both assassinated in the 60's. This family has seen more tragedy than most, so we can only hope that they will be able to deal with this situation and stay strong at Teddy's side. Either way, it seems as though the Lion of the Left may be on his last legs.

Ted Kennedy has been serving in the Senate since 1962, which makes him the second longest serving member of the current Senate, behind President pro-tem Robert Byrd, who is 90 years old. Kennedy was re-elected to a new 6-year term in 2006 and won't be up for re-election again until 2012. So now we need to look at the question, what happens if he cannot complete that term?

If Sen. Kennedy retires or dies in office, Massachusetts law requires that a special election be held to fill the seat somewhere between 145-160 days after he leaves office. That means for a minimum of 145 days, his seat will be vacant. Under the current composition of the Senate, the Democrats and Republicans both hold 49 seats. There are two Independent Senators, Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who both caucus with the Democrats. This gives the Democrats a VERY slim 51-49 majority within the senate, especially considering the fact that Dick Cheney, a Republican, would vote to break ties if there were a 50-50 split in the Senate.

So, should Ted leave the senate, for 145 days, the Senate would be 50-49 Democratic advantage. They would keep the majority, but barely. If in the special election, a Republican wins the seat, the Senate will suddenly be split 50-50, and the Republicans will have the majority as long as a Republican stays in the White House.

The composition of the Senate is already shaky for the Democrats, considering the fact that one of the Independents they NEED to retain majority is supporting John McCain in the upcoming election, and seems to be showing even more Republican tendencies as time goes by. I am talking of course about Joe Lieberman. If he were to change his mind and caucus with the Republicans, the Senate would be split 50-50. It is almost assured this won't happen, since it would be political suicide for Lieberman in Connecticut, but the possibility remains.

Either way, Kennedy's situation greatly affects the Senate, and you can be sure people will be watching what happens to him very closely, especially President Bush. But Kennedy is a fighter, and considering his loyalty to the Democratic party, and how much his seat means to the party, you can be certain he won't be resigning any time soon.

Kyle: You have to keep in mind, though, that Kennedy represents Massachusetts, one of the most consistently Democratic states in the nation. Currently, all 10 Congressmen are Democrats, as well as Kennedy and Junior Senator John Kerry, and it is well known as a liberal bastion. It seems unlikely that a Republican would be able to win a Senate seat in this political environment, so I think the more serious issue here will be the loss of Kennedy as a leader in the Senate and in the Democratic Party.